Linking a storyline with multiple models: a cross-scale study of the UK power system transition

State-of-the-art scenario exercises in the energy and environment fields argue for combining qualitative storylines with quantitative modelling. This paper proposes an approach for linking a highly detailed storyline with multiple, diverse models. This approach is illustrated through a cross-scale study of the UK power system transition until 2050. The storyline, called Central Co-ordination, is linked with insights from six power system models and two appraisal techniques. First, the storyline is ‘translated’ into harmonised assumptions on power system targets for the models. Then, a new concept called the landscape of models is introduced. This landscape helps to map the key fields of expertise of individual models, including their temporal, spatial and disciplinary foci. The storyline is then assessed based on the cross-scale modelling results. While the storyline is important for transmitting information about governance and the choices of key actors, many targets aspired in it are inconsistent with modelling results. The storyline overestimates demand reduction levels, uptake of marine renewables and irreplaceability of carbon capture and storage. It underestimates the supply–demand balancing challenge, the need for back-up capacity and the role of nuclear power and interconnectors with Europe. Thus, iteratively linking storylines and models is key

Distributing power, a transition to a civic energy future: Report of the Realising Transition Pathways Research Consortium ‘Engine Room’

The overarching challenge for UK energy policy is to ensure the delivery of secure, affordable energy in a way that meets the emission reductions targets laid out in the Climate Change Act (2008). The EPSRCfunded Transition Pathways (TP) and, more recently, Realising Transition Pathways (RTP) projects have both argued that multiple logics of governance, ownership, and control of the electricity system can be followed to address the energy trilemma. This work has developed three transition pathways for the UK energy system, each driven by different governance patterns. Each pathway has a specific technological mix, institutional architecture, and societal drivers. These pathways are: Central Co-ordination: Central to this pathway is the role of the nation state in actively delivering the transition. Market Rules: After the creation of a broad policy framework, the state allows competition and private companies to deliver sustainable, affordable energy. Thousand Flowers: This pathway is characterised by a greatly expanded role for civil society in delivering distributed low-carbon generation. The following report focuses on the Thousand Flowers pathway. There is growing interest, from a range of stakeholders, in the potential of distributed low-carbon electricity generation in delivering a low-carbon energy system. Yet there are still significant gaps in understanding, particularly regarding the feasibility of scaling up distributed generation from technological, governance, regulation, policy, and financial perspectives. The aim of this report is to address these gaps within the context of the Thousand Flowers pathway. This research was carried out by the ‘Engine Room’ of the EPSRC-funded Realising Transition Pathways (RTP) consortium. The ‘Engine Room’ was established to facilitate interdisciplinary work across the consortium and consists of research fellows and doctoral researchers from different fields in the nine partner institutions. Engine Room workshops and meetings give researchers the space to present their work and develop and exchange ideas with their peers. This report is an output of a series of interdisciplinary Engine Room workshops held throughout 2013/14 which also drew on contributions from energy industry stakeholders. These workshops brought together the current research and cumulative findings of the Realising Transition Pathways consortium, to examine the consequences of a transition from a centralised energy system to one where distributed generation plays a much greater role (50% of final electricity demand), and is delivered by a civic energy sector. In this report we do not present any panaceas, attempt to preference a civil response to energy transition, or claim technological infallibility. We do, however, explore the potential of a distributed energy future and investigate the technological trajectory it could follow, along with an institutional architecture compatible with its development. We acknowledge throughout that this is a challenging but realistic system transition

Reconciling qualitative storylines and quantitative descriptions: an iterative approach

Energy system transition research has been experimenting with the integration of qualitative and quantitative analysis due to the increased articulation it provides. Current approaches tend to be heavily biased by qualitative or quantitative methodologies, and more often are aimed toward a single academic discipline. This paper proposes an interdisciplinary methodology for the elaboration of energy system socio-technical scenarios, applied here to the low carbon transition of the UK. An iterative approach was used to produce quantitative descriptions of the UK's energy transition out to 2050, building on qualitative storylines or narratives that had been developed through the formal application of a transition pathways approach. The combination of the qualitative and quantitative analysis in this way subsequently formed the cornerstone of wider interdisciplinary research, helping to harmonise assumptions, and facilitating ‘whole systems’ thinking. The methodology pulls on niche expertise of contributors to map and investigate the governance and technological landscape of a system change. Initial inconsistencies were found between energy supply and demand and addressed, the treatment of gas generation, capacity factors, total installed generating capacity and installation rates of renewables employed. Knowledge gaps relating to the operation of combined heat and power, sources of waste heat and future fuel sources were also investigated. Adopting the methodological approach to integrate qualitative and quantitative analysis resulted in a far more comprehensive elaboration than previously, providing a stronger basis for wider research, and for deducing more robust insights for decision-making. It is asserted that this formal process helps build robust future scenarios not only for socio political storylines but also for the quantification of any qualitative storyline